While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. The earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 25, 2022, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates. At the moment, some investors are watching to see if Nvidia's recent growth is part of a permanent shift in demand for Nvidia's products, or whether it's a spike caused by the pandemic.The market expects Nvidia (NVDA) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended April 2022.

For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting data center revenue to rise 123.5%, the fastest pace since FY 2018. Even with the Mellanox deal, data center revenue growth experienced a slight deceleration to 161.7% in the third quarter, and analysts expect the pace of growth to slow to 93.6% in Q4 FY 2021. The Mellanox acquisition, made in the second quarter, contributed to revenue during that period and also in future quarters of FY 2021. Growth accelerated to 80.0% in Q1 FY 2021 and then to 167.5% in Q2 FY 2021.

Nvidia's data center revenue grew just 1.7% for all of FY 2020, declining in each of the first three quarters of the year before rising 42.6% in Q4 FY 2020. While both sources of revenue have received a lift during the pandemic after weak performance in FY 2020, data center revenue continues to rise at a faster pace.

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